Global Commodity Market Analysis
Paper
Global Commodity Market Analysis
Paper
CONTENTS
1.0 Paper Overview
2.0 Assignment Details
3.0 Improved Transitions and Structure
3.1 Signposts and Transitions
3.2 Structuring Paragraphs
3.3 Structuring Sentences
4.0 Improved Details and Appearance
4.1 Attractive Presentation
4.2. Unintended Differences
4.3 Concrete Details
4.4 Peer Review
5.0 Prepare for the Presentation
1.0 OVERVIEW
The Paper assignment is the third assignment. The Paper assignment requires you to present polish and improve your work from the "Market Definition" and "Market Forecast" assignments to create an attractive and clear paper.
You are the publisher of your paper. You must craft a final product that is appealing and easy to read. You have final control over the format and layout, including the footnotes, citations, figures, and table. You should continue to use the suggested number of paragraphs from the prescribed outline as a guide. Your paper must include exactly 13 figures plus one or more images used in an artistic way on your title page. Your paper should have one table that you format as prescribed. You may not have any hand-drawn visual aids. Detailed instructions about how to create and format visual aids, including basic line graphs, is in the Resources chapter in the section on figures and tables.
You are also the editor of your paper. You should look for ways to improve your wording and avoid spelling, grammar, and punctuation errors.
Like in your previous two assignments, you must provide evidence and details to support your all of your claims. For guidance on how to do this, consult the "Credibility, Evidence, and Footnotes" section of the Resources chapter.
Be sure to distinguish your work clearly from others' work except as provided in the prescribed footnote in the first paragraph of your paper. For help with citations and how to avoid plagiarism, see the "Attribution, Citations, and Plagiarism" section of the Resources chapter.
Papers are graded on not only the quality and clarity of the author’s ideas and the strength of the author’s evidence. They are also graded on the author’s ability to convey their ideas in attractive ways that build the author's credibility, reveal the author's attention to detail, and avoid distracting grammar, punctuation, spelling, or design problems.
For this assignment, you must submit a single document via the course management system (e.g., Canvas or Blackboard) unless your instructor specifies an alternate preference in the syllabus.
2.0 ASSIGNMENT DETAILS
The goal of the Paper assignment is to improve the previous written work in all aspects, making it appealing and easy to read, including improvements to the paper's wording, layout, design, footnotes, citations, figures, and tables and elimination of spelling, grammar, and punctuation errors. The Paper assignment must include:
An updated and improved version of the Market Forecast assignment.
About 4,500 words. Notice that if you add up the minimum and maximum number of suggested paragraphs above you find that the range for the entire paper is between 29 and 38. These are the approximate minimum and maximum number of paragraphs required to compete the prescribed analysis persuasively. As further guidance, that equates to an average of 118 to 155 words per paragraph, excluding footnotes.
At least 15 but not more than 17 visual aids (i.e., figures and tables). There is one required title page figure, 13 other required figures, and one required table, making a total of 15 prescribed visual aids. Students may and should consider changes to the number of figures where doing so will improve the value of those visual aids, but in no case should students have fewer than one title page figure, 13 other required figures, and one required table. You may not have more than 17 visual aids total.
3.0 IMPROVED TRANSITIONS AND STRUCTURE
3.1 Signposts and Transitions
Though some writers disagree (e.g., McCloskey), it is a good idea for beginning writers especially to use outline paragraphs that tell readers explicitly the analytical structure of their argument. An outline paragraph informs readers what content the writer will present and the order it will appear. However, an outline paragraph is not useful if the writer fails to deliver the content in the order proposed. The prescribed outline for your report includes a prescribed methods paragraph as part of your market definition and an additional methods statement as part of your market forecast. Both of these are outline paragraphs.
In addition to an outline paragraph, there are other ways to help readers see the structure of the narrative. Another way is to provide regular messages or signals to readers to let them know where they are in the outlined structure. These signposts usually come at the beginning of each new paragraph of each new section. For example, "Having just discussed three significant supply curve shift factors, the author now similarly examine significant shift factors on the demand side." However, it is usually better to focus on the structure of the argument itself rather than on what you as the author will do. For example, you might change the previous example: "In addition to three significant supply curve shift factors, there are also three significant shift factors on the demand side." The key is that readers are able to follow the structure. Another strategy is to use parallel structure (see below). For example, you might start the supply discussion: "There are three significant supply curve shift factors," and then start the demand discussion that follows (several paragraphs later) in parallel fashion: "There are also three significant demand curve shift factors." The word "also" signals to readers that something similar just concluded and something related is about to begin.
However, be careful not to use transitional signposts or section headings too mechanically. You should thoughtfully balance the need to make the organization and flow of your argument clear with the need to make the reading experience pleasing and artful as well.
McCloskey uses the term "table-of-contents paragraph” instead of outline paragraph.1 She says colorfully that such paragraphs are “an abomination to the Lord thy God” and advises writers to avoid them. She explains that readers "can't understand the paragraph until, like the author, they have read the paper, at which point they don't need it." Elsewhere, she writes that "most drafts of papers in economics consist mostly of summary, outline, anticipation, announcement, repetition, and review."2 Her argument is that excessive references to narrative structure distracts readers who prefer to get on to the main points. Her alternative view is one worth considering. Her challenge to writers is for them to make comprehension of their work easy without resorting to signposts.
Similarly, McCloskey advises writers to avoid excessive headings and subheadings, particularly in shorter texts. McCloskey's argument in essence is that a clear and organized text without such crutches is harder to write and too many authors simply ignore the challenge. Too many writers use headings and subheadings to identify the main points of an argument rather than writing coherent text where the main points are inherently clear and easy to follow. That is indeed a worthy goal.
It is possible to include too much signposting and references to the narrative structure. It is worth considering in the final draft whether an outline paragraph in necessary. Shorter manuscripts with clear transitions from one idea to the next certainly can function very well without an outline paragraph. However, if nothing else, outline paragraphs provide a useful focus for most beginning writers, at least during the initial stages of the writing process.
3.2 Structuring Paragraphs
Readers expect that groups of sentences (e.g., a paragraph) will be linked together. Readers expect the emphatic (i.e., important) part of one sentence to be referenced at the beginning of the next sentence. McCloskey describes this kind of writing as "transitive writing".3 The structure, she notes, follows a specific pattern: (AB)(BC)(CD). Consider this example:
This year, U.S. stock markets are expected to rebound leading to a rise in consumer incomes. An increase in consumer incomes will cause the demand curve for a normal good to shift to the right. This shift in demand will lead to future increases in both equilibrium price and quantity.
These three sentences conform to the transitive writing pattern. Each successive sentence references the emphatic part of the previous sentence. This arrangement generally conforms best to most readers' expectations and causes the fewest distractions.
Also, within paragraphs, consider using evaluation criteria sentences to guide readers through your analysis of individual claims. Evaluation criteria tell readers the evidentiary criteria that you will use to assess the quality or strength of a particular claim (e.g., There are three factors that distinguish organic sweet potatoes from other potatoes."). Within paragraphs, avoid merely listing a set of related sentences (e.g., a list of evidence) without providing context and interpretation (e.g., using evaluation criteria).
3.3 Structuring Sentences
Gopen and Swan (1990) identify three reader expectations that they say writers should not ignore.4 The first reader expectation is that "a grammatical subject [should] be followed immediately by a verb." The second reader expectation is that the end of a sentence is the natural "stress position" and, as such, that is where information should appear that that the writer intends to emphasize. In other words, new information should appear at the end of sentences and the sentence should look forward, advancing the narrative toward the next sentence. And third, the beginning of a sentence is the natural "topic position" and, as such, writers should fill those spots with information that provides context for the stressed information that follows at the end of the sentence. Previously introduced information (i.e., "old" information) should appear at the beginning of sentences and this information should look backwards, linking to information already presented.
Let's look at each of these suggestions. First, readers expect subjects to be followed immediately by verbs. Once a reader is introduced to a subject (e.g., "Bill"), they naturally want to know what is going to happen to the subject (e.g., What is "Bill" going to do?). When there is separation between the subject and verb, readers often do not pay much attention to the intervening words and sometime become distracted from who the subject was. For example, "My friend Bill, who is the son of a famous rodeo clown from a small town in Arizona near the Mexico border, gave me a nice birthday present today." The subordinate clause that starts with "who is..." and refers to "Bill" is between the subject ("Bill") and the verb ("gave"). What is Bill going to do? Bill gave. The reader wants to get to that point quickly, subject then verb. When the verb does not follow soon after the subject, readers tend to skip over or pay less attention to these intervening words because they want to know what the subject did (i.e., they want to get to the action). That is, this kind of subject-verb separation violates readers' expectations, and you should avoid doing this. An better way to word this would be to create two sentences or to use a semicolon: "Bill is the son of a famous rodeo clown from a small town in Arizona near the Mexico border. Bill gave me nice a birthday present today."
Second, readers expect the most important part of a sentence to appear at the end. Consider an example: "The U.S. stock market indices plunged 20% at three o'clock in the afternoon today." In most situations, a 20% drop in the U.S. stock indices would be dramatic news. The fact that it occurred at 3:00PM in the afternoon is probably less important. When sentences are worded like the one above with the most emphatic part (a 20% drop in the stock market) occurring in the middle of the sentence, it causes readers to pause and wonder, in this case, was 3:00PM somehow a significant time. Assuming that it was not significant, the sentence would conform better to readers' expectations if worded with the most important part at the end: "At three o'clock in the afternoon today, the U.S. stock market indices plunged 20%."
Third, readers expect the context part of a sentence to appear at the beginning. Just as readers expect to see the important part of a sentence at the end, they similarly expect the beginning of a sentence to provide some context or a link back to some previously supplied context. Consider this example: "To administer your exam tomorrow, Rita is available." This sentence tells readers first that someone is going to do something at a particular time and then tells them who and why. Most readers pause with confusion when they read this sentence. They pause and wonder if it means something more or something different than it seems. This pause is a distraction because it violates readers' expectations. Most readers would instead expect the sentence simply to read: "Rita is available to administer your exam tomorrow." This arrangement informs readers first that Rita is available and then tells them what she is available to do and when (i.e., "administer your exam tomorrow"). Of course, the best particular arrangement will depend on the particular context and the meaning that the writer wishes to convey.
A related expectation is that writers use parallel structures. Consider an example. Economics is a social science, a mathematical science, and is known as the "dismal science". The problem with this sentence is that the series begins with one structure and then concludes with a different structure. The sentence starts with two kinds of science that economics is (namely a social and a mathematical science) and then concludes with a kind of science that economics is known as. The sentence is not parallel because the three ideas do not have the same parallel structure. The sentence would read better as: Economics is a social science, a mathematical science, and the "dismal science". This arrangement is parallel because it describes three kinds of science that economics is. An alternative parallel arrangement would be: “Economics is a social and mathematical science that is known as the "dismal science."
4.0 IMPROVED DETAILS AND APPEARANCE
This section includes a lot of rules about how to improve your writing. These rules are intended to help you craft your messages to your readers honestly, plainly, and graciously with as few distractions as possible. Many of the suggestions in this text are borrowed from other works, including Deirdre McCloskey’s article “Economical Writing” in Economic Inquiry (1985) and Walter Salant’s “Writing and Reading Economics” in Journal of Political Economy (1969). Three other excellent and classic writing resources are George Orwell's short essay "Politics and the English Language" (1946), Strunk and White's The Elements of Style (1959), and more recently Gopen and Swan's article "The Science of Scientific Writing" (1990).1,2,3.4
But, most rules have exceptions, and most rules are intended to be broken sometimes. The key is to know when to break the rules. In your earlier assignments, your instructor has probably expected you to follow the prescribed outline exactly and include all of the prescribed language. Now is the time that you must reexamine those suggestions.
4.1 Attractive Presentation
To some extent, neatness is subjective, particularly when a paper or presentation is published as an isolated work (i.e., not part of a collection of works). Style guides (e.g., MLA, APA, and Chicago manuals) can provide useful ideas about how to organize a paper or presentation stylistically. These guides are known for having lots of detailed rules (e.g., about the particular ways to cite works by others). The complexity and number of these rules often obscure the more important and general purposes of these style guides.
These guides have three common purposes. They aim simply to make the organization and style of presentations, papers, and other works (1) clear, (2) consistent, and (3) unobtrusive. That's it. To say that a paper or manuscript is neat means that the author presents the various organizational and stylistic elements clearly, consistently, and unobtrusively. Clear means that you make the idea readily and easily apparent to others. Consistent means that you treat similar things similarly. Unobtrusive means that your organization and style choices interfere with your message in the least ways possible.
For isolated works, authors have more creative control over such issues as the design, size, and placement of the figures, the font type and size, and other page layout details. For isolated works, there is by definition no reason to make the work consistent with any other work. In such cases, consistency just means that the paper or presentation is internally consistent (i.e., consistent with itself). For works that are published as a group (e.g., a manuscript sent to a journal for publication), consistency not only means being internally consistent; it also means being consistent with the other works published in the same journal. Style guides and other publisher instructions become much more important when a work is set to be part of a larger collection of related works.
This text assumes that you will publish your analysis as an isolated work and not part of a collection of similar works. As such, you have much more creative control over how your analysis looks on paper and how you design your video presentation. That means that the concept of 'neatness' is more subjective. That means that you should thoughtfully consider many different design ideas and choose the ones that you think best suit your analysis and audience. There are many design ideas for you to consider:
What is the most attractive amount of line spacing?
What is the most attractive font type?
What is the most attractive font size?
What is the most attractive page margins?
What is the most attractive location for page numbering?
What is the most attractive design for your footnotes?
What is the most attractive size and arrangement of your visual aids?
What is the most attractive use of color, if any?
For many of these decisions, you may want to search on the Internet or look in a style guide for good ideas (e.g., search, "What is the best line spacing?"). With so many design variables, it will be highly unusual that any one student's design is the same as another student. Given the many possible options, the look of your paper and presentation will almost surely be different than the look of others' work. Be cautious, therefore, about stealing (i.e., plagiarizing) the overall design (i.e., work) of others. The first footnote of your paper allows you to copy freely any of the ideas (including design ideas) presented in this text, but you should not merely cut-and-paste your text into the original design template created by another student.
Here are some formatting suggestions to consider. While there is no universal agreement about font style, common font styles in technical communication are Times New Roman and Cambria. Font sizes for main text are typically 11 or 12 point with larger sizes used for title and section headings and smaller sizes used for footnotes and similar text. Typically, one-inch margins all around are good for self published works. For final printed works (i.e., not drafts and not manuscripts to be edited and printed by a publisher), the line spacing is typically single spaced, 1.15, or 1.5 spacing. Avoid double spacing for works that are self-published. Sometimes indented paragraphs are separated by an additional space or half space. Consider how you might use color, special lines, and special graphics to achieve the three style goals of greater clarity, consistency, and unobtrusiveness. As the author, you may need to consider the trade-offs between use of color for greater clarity versus the potential for color to create additional confusion. Peer review is a good way to get feedback about how the layout and design of your final work affects these goals (e.g., prepare two versions and then ask reviewers which they prefer). You may elect to include a cover page and, if so, authors generally have great flexibility about its design and layout.
While what is 'attractive' may be largely subjective, technical communication absolutely requires consistent use (at least) and correct use (where there's agreement) of grammar, punctuation, and spelling. It is not enough for the spelling and grammar to be internally consistent within your isolated work. All authors of all technical communication works must also do their best to understand and follow a common set of grammar, punctuation, and spelling rules. That is what readers expect. It is beyond the scope of this text to identify these rules, but excellent grammar, punctuation, and spelling summaries are available in most introductory composition textbooks and online (e.g., search "grammar rules" or "punctuation rules").
As noted, you have significant creative control over how your written analysis looks and sounds. Here are some specific suggestions to guide your thinking and design ideas.
4.2 Unintended Differences
Unless you want to attract attention to something, make things that are the same look the same. In other words, if you don't want readers and viewers to focus on something, don't attract unwanted attention to it by making it look different. A good example are the visual aids in your paper. All of your visual aids should look like they belong together in the same paper. The goal is to highlight the important information by maintaining consistency in every other aspect.
For example, the six supply/demand shift factors each require a separate visual aid (i.e., Figures 7 through 12 of your analysis). These six graphs are intended to show only how equilibrium price and quantity change as the result of a shift in either supply or demand. In these graphs, the emphasis is only on the direction of change, not on the magnitude of the shift. And, for each graph, the shift occurs holding all else equal. Thus, you only want people to focus on how one curve (either supply or demand) shifts in a single directions (either left or right) yielding specific changes in equilibrium price and quantity (either an increase or decrease). Ideally these six figures should look exactly the same except for these few possible options (a curve going left or right, a price increasing or decreasing, and a quantity increasing or decreasing). And, since the direction of change is all that matters, ideally the amount of leftward or rightward shift should appear the same in all six figures.
The same logic of consistency versus difference applies to all of the other elements of your paper and your presentation. In your presentation, you will have a background (e.g., a solid color background or maybe something with more colors or lines). Your background should appear the same on each slide. You want viewers to see the background, but you don't want them to notice it, at least not after they see it for the first time. You can image how confused viewers would be if you had a different background for each different slide (answer: very confused). The viewer would have a much harder time knowing what to focus on and what was merely background information.
The same is true for a paper. You should use one font size for your entire paper except when you want to attract the reader's attention (e.g., the title of a paper which is usually larger) or when you want to indicate something is less significance (e.g., citations below visuals aids and footnotes are usually in a smaller font size). You should use a consistent font throughout your entire work (e.g., don't use New Times Roman for the body text and then use Cambria for the text associated with your visual aids). Text accents like bold, underline, and italics attract attention. Only use those text accents purposefully (e.g., for titles and section headings) when you want readers to notice.
The need for consistency applies not only to how your paper looks (i.e., font style, font size, text accents or not, and style of visual aids). There are also other ways that you should maintain consistency. For example, you should have a common way (or common set of similar ways) that you refer to yourself as the author. You should not, for example, refer to yourself as "the author" and then in the next paragraph use the word "I" to refer to yourself and in a later paragraph refer to yourself as "we". This lack of consistency causes readers to be confused, to focus on irrelevant aspects of your work, to wonder whether different people are writing different sections of your analysis, for example. Of course, some variation may be appropriate (e.g., "the author" and "the analyst" both use the third person). If you want to refer to yourself as the author using the personal pronoun "I", you may want to include a short paragraph on your title page that describes who you are and emphasize your credentials as an analyst.
In the same way that you should refer to yourself as the author in a consistent way, you should also refer to your readers and viewers consistently unless you have a good reason for not doing so. In most technical communication, it is not necessary to refer to the reader at all. In general, avoid referring to the reader unless you actually mean "the reader". For example, it would be fine to write (e.g., in a footnote), "Some readers may object to this line of reasoning." However, it would not be fine to write, "When you buy craft beer, it usually comes in a frosted mug." In the latter sentence, the pronoun "you" implies that the reader buys craft beer. Since that may not be true for some readers (e.g., those who avoid beer for ethical, dietary, or personal reasons), you should be very careful if you use the pronoun "you" to refer to readers. Sometimes it works fine; other times is doesn't work.
Similarly, you should maintain a single verb tense throughout your work. The typical verb tense for technical communication is the simple present tense (i.e., "is", "are", "shifts", "causes", and "leads to"). You should generally avoid past tense (i.e., "was", "were", "shifted", "caused", and "lead to") and all of the conditional tenses (e.g., "would be", "could shift", "might cause", and "should lead to"). Sometimes it is impossible to avoid the future tense (i.e., "will be", "will shift", and "will lead to") or past tense, but these tenses are often used when the simple present tense would work equally well. In any case, the more important point is that you should not unintentionally mix verb tenses. For example, you should not write, "This report defines and examines..." (i.e., simple present tense) and then write, "The author will first explain what..." (i.e., future tense).
4.3 Concrete Details
Concrete details build and sustain your credibility as a thoughtful and informed analyst. For more information about where to get and how to use evidence and details, see that section of the Resources chapter. There you will also find information about what information goes in footnotes versus in the main body of your text and how to create footnotes. To persuade readers that the propositions of your argument are true and therefore that your argument is both valid and sound, you need concrete details.
Avoid Undefined Words. Avoid abstract words that have clear but different meanings to different people. These words include "conservative", "liberal", "justice", "fair", "righteous", "truth", and "good". Different people have strong but differing views about what these words mean. As such, these words can be hard to define in ways that are acceptable to all readers. If possible, avoid words that are hard to define. Other examples may include "healthy", "good", "valuable", "worthwhile", and their corollaries. Use evaluation criteria to help define words that are important to your argument.
Avoid Imprecise Words. Readers may interpret words differently than intended. For example, the market for "non-GMO cattle" could mean cattle that have not been genetically modified or it could mean (more likely) cattle that are fed non-GMO feed. If the intention is the latter, the wording should be changed to be more precise (e.g., "non-GMO fed cattle" or maybe "GMO-free cattle").
Some so-called politically correct language is intentionally vague and should be avoided if possible. Vague language can be useful in certain political situations but not usually in technical communication. For example, the word "senior citizen" is not precise. "Elderly" or "geriatric" might be better. Are these people actually "citizens"? Citizens of what? Is that important? Another example is "high class". What does that mean? Are there classes of people in the United States? Other words like "high income", "wealthy", "socio-economically advantaged" might be more accurate. You will probably still need to define these words specifically (e.g., in the main text or in a footnote), but you will help your reader avoid unnecessary confusion if start with a word or term that is--by itself--as precise as possible.
Avoid Unfamiliar Words. Avoid specialized jargon that might be unfamiliar to readers. Avoid foreign words (e.g., ceteris paribus, a priori, and bone fide) unless you are confident that your audience is familiar with these terms. Use footnotes to provide translations where needed. You might instead use their simpler equivalents (i.e., "holding all else constant", "given the initial premises", or "genuine"). Avoid long or complex words if simpler, more common ones will do. Do not compromise accuracy, however. Work instead to find ways to communicate your useful message using fewer words with fewer syllables. Rearrange and substitute words. Editing is like a game. If you have trouble editing your writing, sometimes it may be because you do not have a clear understanding of the useful message you want to convey. If your message is clear to yourself, editing can be a fun activity to find the clearest and most concise wording. The challenge is to create clear, succinct writing that conforms to modern English standards and that is enjoyable to read.
Avoid Unnecessary Words. Many words are unnecessary, and unnecessary words make one’s writing less clear. Learning to write more succinctly using fewer words takes practice. But, the challenge can also be fun. Where possible, avoid unnecessary instances of "he/she" and unnecessary uses of articles (i.e., "a", "an", "the") by using plural subjects and verbs. Write that “Producers sell their products at markets” rather than “The producer sells his/her product at the market." Also, avoid repeating less important words. Write that “Many people think that products endorsed by famous people are good ones to buy” rather than "Many people think that if a product is endorsed by a famous person that it is a good product to buy" (avoids unnecessary repetition of the word “product”). Also, be direct. For example, write that “snow covered the countryside” rather than “The snow lay like a blanket. It covered the countryside.” Always look for words that can be eliminated. Compare “Disease decreased demand” versus “Because of the fact that there was a disease outbreak, the demand had the effect of decreasing.” Finally, the word "et cetera" or "etc." is often unneeded and rarely adds additional useful meaning, information, etc. See?
Avoid Figurative Language. Avoid wording that does not directly describe a concept or idea. For example, do not write, "The spatial boundaries run from North Dakota to Texas", but instead write, "The spatial boundaries extend from North Dakota to Texas." Boundaries do not "run". People and animals do. Write that “the product is too expensive for most consumers” rather than “the product is out of reach for most consumers.” Or, write that “wasted time is costly” rather than “time is money.” Write that “the product is selling well” rather than it is “flying off the shelves”. Figurative language is often hard to catch (oh, see, there’s another example; you can't "catch" language). Figurative language is hard to identify. I should have said that figurative language is often hard to identify. Removing figurative language is especially important if your audience includes non-native language speakers since many figurative expressions do not translate well literally.
Avoid Unnecessary Claims. Unnecessary claims are ones that are not needed to sustain the author's argument or analysis. Reconsider and remove from your manuscript any claims that are not needed. Usually unneeded claims appear unintentionally.
For example, an author writing about the current local retail market for bagels in Lexington, Kentucky wrote, "Everyone loves bagels." This claim is not likely needed to sustain the author's argument or analysis. Readers that do not like bagels or who know people that do not like bagels will object to this claim as untrue. It is not true that everyone loves bagels. Unneeded claims like these are distracting to readers. Parsimony requires that writers use the straightest possible path to their conclusion, without introducing unnecessary propositions, assumptions, or facts that track more circuitous paths. It is when writers first start to put the logic of their arguments and analyses into words that they most often have to return to their outlines for revision. Be prepared. Look for distracting and unnecessary claims.
Avoid Overstated Claims. Overstated claims are ones that writers express too emphatically or to a degree that is unwarranted or unnecessary. By contrast, qualified statements are ones that allow for a certain amount of disagreement or objection. For example, compare “The market population will increase” versus “The market population is likely to increase.” The first statement is absolute. In the second statement, the word “likely” qualifies the statement. There are many ways to make qualified statements. You could instead write: “Evidence suggests that the market population will increase.” Or, you could write, “The author believes that the market population will increase”. It is a good idea to use qualified statements when you make claims (e.g., about the future) that are based on incomplete evidence (i.e., claims that might be false).
You do not, however, need to use qualified wording for statements that are logically true or that are accepted as customarily true. For example, accepted economic theory says that “If demand shifts to the right, equilibrium price and quantity will both increase, ceteris paribus.” This statement is logically true and does not need to be qualified. You should not say, “If demand shifts to the right, it is likely that equilibrium price and quantity will both increase, ceteris paribus.”
Consider another example. The spatial boundaries of most local and regional markets are rarely certain. Instead, analysts must use subjective judgments to define these boundaries. These subjective judgments mean that readers may make different judgments that are no less valid, but just happen to be different. The spatial boundaries of most markets are debatable. It would be distracting to some readers for an author to state too emphatically where these boundaries are. For example, suppose an author wrote, "The market boundaries include Fayette and the adjoining counties." In this example, what is the reader to do but become distracted if, by whatever alternative logic, the reader believes those prescribed boundaries are not exactly correct? One solution is to provide appropriate qualification to the proposition: "For the purposes of this analysis, the market boundaries generally include Fayette and the adjoining counties." Or, another solution might be to use conditional language: "From the foregoing analysis, the market boundaries appear to include Fayette and the adjoining counties."
Consider another example related to the local retail market for gluten-free beer in Lexington, Kentucky from 2016 to 2021. Using Yelp, this analyst identified three primary retailers of this product (Good Foods Co-Op, Lucky’s Grocery Store, and Whole Foods). Later in the analyst’s paper, he wrote: “The three known carriers of this product in Lexington are no different.” This claim is overstated. All the analyst needs to say is that that, from the perspective of most consumers, there are likely very few meaningful differences between the three known carriers of this product. You do not want readers fussing with you, saying that it’s not true that these stores “are no different”. All that matters to this analysis is that there are very few differences. If so, just say what you mean and don’t overstate the claim unnecessarily.
Avoid Understated Claims. Writers should also avoid understating propositions since they too are distracting. For example, if consumer incomes increase, it is a customary truth of economic theory that demand will increase, assuming the good is a normal good and that all else is held constant. It would therefore be inappropriate to write, "It seems that demand will increase" under these conditions. Under these conditions, demand will according to accepted economic theory increase. It may be appropriate, however, to qualify the precipitating cause of the theoretical shift (e.g., "The author expects consumer incomes to increase for three reasons").
You as the analyst must decide how best to balance the strength of any claim you make. There is not one right way. A humorous story about Mark Twain5 illustrates this point. When Mark Twain was a young reporter, his editor instructed him to never state as a fact anything that he had not personally verified. Upon being sent soon after to cover an important social event, he wrote the following:
A woman giving the name of Mrs. James Jones, who is reported to be one of the society leaders in this city, is said to have given what purported to be a party yesterday to a number of alleged ladies. The hostess claims to be the wife of a reputed attorney.
For beginning writers, the key is to recognize that propositions are not either true or false. Truth and validity has a range. Conditional or qualified language merely seeks to recognize that different people may view evidence of a particular claim (i.e., some "truth") as being slightly stronger or weaker. And that’s okay typically as long as most readers agree generally with what you as the analyst say. Thoughtful authors should strive to make purposeful choices about where along that range to cast each proposition.
Avoid Unclear References. A reference is a thing that points to something else. There are many ways that references are used in writing and speech. You want to make sure that all of your references are clear. If you refer to anything, it should be clear what it is. If you think the reference is mostly clear but perhaps not fully clear to some readers, you can insert a footnote to add clarity without interrupting the flow of your analysis.
All visual aids (i.e., figures and tables) should be useful in the sense that they should make good sense by themselves, though tables almost always require additional discussion in the main body of the text. Similarly, all visual aids should have in-text references that tell readers when specifically they should find and look at each visual aid. Also, no visual aid should ever appear in the text before that visual aid's in-text reference appears. For example, as readers go through your paper, they should not encounter a figure or table without first encountering its in-text reference. When that happens, it distracts readers because readers lack from the main text the necessary context and, in the case of tables especially, the supporting explanation.
When you reference a figure or table, you should capitalize the word “Figure” or “Table” (e.g., “…as shown in Figure 6.”). If possible, avoid unnecessarily stark references to visual aids. A stark reference is one that is “in your face”. An example of a stark reference would be: “This idea is shown in Figure 6.” You could write a shorter sentence (e.g., “See Figure 6.”) and that would be better, but still not best. The best way to reference visual aids is often to put the reference in parentheses at the end of a relevant sentence. For example, I might write: “If demand shifts to the right, equilibrium price and quantity will both increase, ceteris paribus (Figure 7).” You see, I just put the reference in parentheses at the end of the relevant sentence.
Obviously, you should never have a reference in the main text to a visual aid that do not exist.
And, to avoid plagiarism, you should always clearly reference what work is yours and what work is not yours. The only exception allowed in your assignments is the exception allowed in the footnote prescribed in your purpose statement paragraph. Remember, that is the footnote that says that you will distinguish all of your work clearly from others' work with the exception of any work that appears in Roger Brown's online textbook.
Avoid Unclear Antecedents. Antecedents are pronoun references. Pronouns are words that refer to nouns (i.e., people, places, and things). A pronoun's antecedent is the word--the noun--that a pronoun references. An unclear antecedent exists when a pronoun does not have a clear reference. In general, avoid using "this", "that", and "theses" as simple subjects since these words used in this way often have unclear antecedents. For example, avoid writing, "This increases demand," and instead write "A change in the number of consumers increases demand" or "This change increases demand." Unclear antecedents also exist when a single pronoun refers back to two or more possible antecedents (i.e., creating ambiguity). For example, "Organic chicken differs from free-range chicken in that it is healthier." It is unclear what the word "it" refers to. Does it refer to "organic chicken" or to "free-range chicken". You could improve the clarity by writing, "Organic chicken differs from free-range chicken in that the former is healthier." Or, even better, might be: "Organic chicken is healthier than free-range chicken."
Reference Dates and Places Clearly. Avoid words that have changing references depending on when and where the reader is. Your audience likely won’t know who you are, where you live, or what time period you prepared your analysis. For these reasons, avoid referencing dates, times, and locations in subjective ways.
For example, don’t write that your analysis is “from the present until 2021”. That forces the reader to go figure out what you mean by “the present”. It would be better to write “from 2016 to 2021”. Do not write, for example: “One of the known retailers, Lucky’s Market, just opened in January of this year”. It would be better to state the actual year since it’s not immediately clear when “this year” is.
The same is true when referencing locations. Avoid writing: “In the author’s hometown…” or “Here in town…” without being clear where these places are. Your reader probably does not know (or care) where you live now or where you grew up. Your writing should describe times, dates, and locations objectively (e.g., “In Lexington, Kentucky…”).
Clarify Acronyms. When you use an acronym for the first time in a document, you should write out the words and provide the acronym in parenthesis if it will be used later. For example, "Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) cannot be organic." It is sometimes better and clearer to avoid using acronyms at all. Instead, you can substitute a single word for the longer phrase (e.g., write "these organisms" to refer to "genetically modified organisms" rather than write "these GMOs").
Use an Objective Tone. As an analyst, you want readers and listeners to trust you. To do that you must build and maintain your credibility as an analyst. An objective tone reminds your audience that you have approached your analytical task in a thoughtful, judicious, and unbiased way. An objective tone is best.
Tone is the expression of an author's attitudes, biases, and personality as perceived by readers. Authors should ask themselves, "Who do my readers think I am when I write or speak about this subject?". Authors of technical writing should adopt the tone of a reasonable and modest guide. Authors who are reasonable and modest guides will speak and write as one who is leading their audiences patiently and methodically through an analysis, as one who points out along the way where the dead-end trails are, where the best path forward is, and why. Reasonable and modest guides do not appear rushed; they do not sound hurried. They do not appear ashamed to admit when time or other resources are insufficient to explore other areas or to give more complete explanations. These authors appear ready and willing to admit the short-comings of the analysis but do not appear to dwell on, take offense, apologize, or make excuses for them. These authors do not seem concerned to convince readers that the selected path is particularly exciting or dull, only that it seems honestly to them like the logical way to go given the available information and the necessary assumptions. This is the tone that technical writers should have. You should avoid biased, hysterical, informal, and hostile tones.
Avoid a Biased Tone. In your market analysis, be critical of biased marketing executives (i.e., those people you might interview) who often seek to promote the product or service that you are examining. Don’t just adopt the prevailing marketing buzz. Don’t say, for example, that your market is good for investors or that a particular product is healthy without first examining that claim critically. Your job as an analyst is to guide your audience through an objective and judicious examination of the available information and then point towards a reasonable conclusion. Your job as an analyst is not to promote the product or service that you are examining.
This logic also applies to other kinds of technical communication assignments like documentaries and resumes. Most documentaries have a specific slanted or biased message (e.g., Super Size Me directed by Morgan Spurlock). Resumes too are slanted in the sense that authors want to create a positive portrayal of their qualifications in hopes of getting a job. But, the key is that the tone should be objective even if the content or message is not.
Avoid a Hysterical Tone. Avoid words that connote exceptional circumstances or conditions unless that is specifically what you mean. Such words often are inaccurate if not used purposefully. These words include "absolutely", "purely", "definitely", "especially", "fascinating", "terrific", "wonderful', "great", "extremely", and "very". Most conclusions or findings are not absolutely true. Most ideas are not definitely important. Most products are not very interesting. Most markets are not growing especially fast. These words suggest to readers that authors are hysterical or so emotionally invested in an analysis that their analysis is (surely) biased. In general, avoid hysterical wording.
Avoid an Informal Tone. Technical communication is generally among the most formal kinds of communication or at least that is a conventional reader expectation. An informal tone may occur from an unsuccessful effort at humor (e.g., a parenthetical joke) or the use of figurative language (e.g., let me "walk you through this"). Use of contractions (e.g., "can't", "don't", and "haven't") and jargon (i.e., language specialized to a particular culture or discipline) also may set an unwanted informal tone. Avoid contractions. Again, think of yourself as a reasonable and modest guide. You should maintain a professional tone as you address your audience.
Avoid a Hostile Tone. Avoid words that connote an overly confident or hostile tone. Use of such words and phrases can cause readers to think that an author depends on aggressive rhetorical wording rather than on objective analysis to move the argument along. Such words and phrases include "essentially", "of course", "without a doubt", "as a matter of fact", and "naturally". An objective, matter-of-fact tone is good. An aggressive or belittling tone can distract your audience.
4.4 Peer Review
Finally, once you have done your best work, including self review, you should solicit peer review. The best way to improve your work is to identify the best writers and thinkers you can find, ask them to give you brutally honest feedback, and then do your best to address those suggestions. You can find detailed suggestions for how to engage in self review and how to solicit peer review in that section of the Resources chapter of this online textbook.
5.0 PREPARING FOR THE PRESENTATION
As you write and then polish your paper, you should be mindful that many readers expect the visual aids (i.e., figures and tables) from your paper should as a group independently (i.e., with no other text) essentially tell the story of your analysis. In other words, readers often look at a title page, they may read an abstract or the first couple of paragraphs of an analysis (i.e., the purpose and method statements), and they look at all of the figures and tables. They might also read the conclusion, if they can find it easily.
This means that as you prepare your paper, you should give special consideration to the information given in your visual aids and the "story" that those visual aids tell by themselves. If you do and if the "story" is fairly easy to follow by looking only at the visual aids, that will make it relatively easy for you to prepare for your presentation.
Your presentation must be a pre-recorded video that is as close to 10 minutes as possible where you voice over a set of slides (e.g., PowerPoint) and describe your process and outcomes of your analysis. The expectation is that you will excerpt in order all of your visual aids (i.e., your title page image, your figures, and your tables), putting each visual aid on a separate slide.
For example, assuming that you have a thoughtful and informative title page image, you can adapt that image to be the title page for your presentation. Next, you will probably want to explain what global commodity you are analyzing, so in your presentation you should be able to insert your "Figure 1" which, as suggested in the Overview chapter, should be an image showing how the what the global commodity looks. Next, your listeners are going to want to know who are the primary producers in your market (i.e., Figure 2) and how the commodity flows through the marketing chain (i.e., Figure 3). Next, your listeners will want to know where your global commodity is produced (i.e., Figure 4), what form and quantity the commodity has when traded (i.e., Figure 5), and what the current market conditions are now (i.e., Figure 6).
In your presentation, you will then show your listeners the six factors that shift the supply or demand curve (i.e., Figure 7 through Figure 12). At that point, your listener will want a summary of those six shift factors (i.e., Table 1) and information about how those the individual shifts will be combined to identify the overall effects on supply and demand (i.e., the joint effects). Your listeners will then be ready for you to show them how Figure 6 will change over the period of your analysis and the specific impacts on market price and quantity (i.e., Figure 13). You can then include a final slide in your presentation showing caveats and limitations and/or a slide that thanks those who helped you with your analysis.
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1. McCloskey, Deirdre 1985. "Economical Writing". Economic Inquiry. 24(2): 187-222.
2. McCloskey, Deirdre. 1999. "Economical Writing: An Executive Summary." Eastern Economic Journal. 25(2).
3. McCloskey, Deirdre 1985. "Economical Writing". Economic Inquiry. 24(2): 187-222.
4. Gopen, G. and J. Swan. 1990. "The Science of Scientific Writing." American Scientist. Accessed 9/20/15 at http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/the-science-of-scientific-writing/1.
5. Quoted in Strunk, W., Jr. and E. B. White. 1959. The Elements of Style. Macmillan.